Articles Written By: emae2021@pomona.edu

Recovery or Reinvention?

Economy
Recovery or Reinvention

Images of an empty Times Square at 8PM during the COVID-19 crisis.

Thurgood Powell ’10 recalls walking through Times Square at 8:30 on a Saturday evening last July. A newly minted MBA from Penn’s Wharton School, he was starting a job at Goldman Sachs in New York. “It was really, really bizarre,” he says of the scene. There were a few homeless people wearing masks and gloves, some police on regular patrol—and no tourists. What he remembers is that “the lights felt overpowering. There are just so many of them. You don’t notice until that’s the only thing there.”

The COVID-19 pandemic that emptied out Times Square has also upended the U.S. and world economy in 2020. More than 30 million Americans filed first-time unemployment claims in just six weeks in March and April. Whole industries, such as travel and hospitality, faced sudden crisis. Small businesses struggled to hang on—and many didn’t make it. The U.S. Congress temporarily overcame political polarization to pass pandemic response spending bills totaling more than $4 trillion.

At some point—a study by McKinsey & Company estimates it is most likely to be in the second half of 2021 or later—the U.S. will reach herd immunity in the pandemic, allowing some kind of “normal life” to resume, to our great relief. Restaurants will fill up. Students will learn in person again. The lights will go on as workers return to megacity offices coast to coast and around the world.

Or will they? Will a few superstar cities like New York still dominate, post-pandemic? Or will work-from-home continue and make possible an exodus to places less crowded and more affordable? Is globalism dead? What will the new normal in the economy look like?

While some might think the sudden supply-chain disruptions and closed international borders of the pandemic year might take the luster off globalization, Manisha Goel, associate professor of economics at Pomona, says, “I’m a skeptic about that.” The reason why goods in various stages of production have been manufactured in multiple countries and shipped to markets around the world is because it was cost-efficient. “As long as the pandemic is not going to occur every three or four years, people will want to go back to the way they used to do things because that is what made the most rational sense,” Goel believes.

“COVID has accelerated trends,” says Powell, an associate in Goldman Sachs’s Merchant Banking Division and a member of the Urban Investment Group’s acquisitions team. “Like delivery. A lot of us use Amazon, but I’d never gotten groceries delivered. Now I can’t imagine not having groceries delivered. I just have to go to my phone and type in what I want.”

Yet there is a price for this convenience, often paid by small businesses. Fernando Lozano, chair of Pomona’s Department of Economics, sees a concerning trend in the closure of small and medium-sized businesses during the pandemic. “Larger firms have increased market share,” he notes. “Less people are accumulating assets. The distribution of wealth becomes more and more unequal.”

Industry consolidation, as smaller players are squeezed out, also increases the power of industry leaders to hire workers with lower pay, less benefits and worse conditions, says Lozano. “Whenever large firms increase their market share, they increase their own bargaining power.”

Goel describes a potential K-shaped post-pandemic recovery as top earners, many of whom can work from home, do even better, while those below them on the pay scale fall farther behind. She believes future tax policy needs to be more progressive. “The marginal tax rates for the rich should not be lower than for the middle- and lower-income households,” she says. “They should be substantially higher. The trickle-down policies haven’t really worked.”

Four months into his new job at Goldman Sachs in New York, Powell has never been to the office. He is part of the huge cohort of workers for whom “Zoom” is now both proper noun and verb. “I’m working from home, doing everything I would do in the office. I’m using a technology that makes it so I have the same desktop I would have in the office,” he says. “A lot of businesses,” he notes, “are thinking, ‘Do we need all this office space?’”

COVID-19, Powell believes, is also making employees rethink their own housing situations. Some are asking, “Why am I paying $4,000 a month for a 900-square-foot apartment with a screaming child in the bedroom next to me?” he remarks. For some slice of those now working remotely, the answer is to move to a place like the Hudson Valley or North Carolina or Reno.

Work-from-home, if it becomes widely accepted long-term, offers potential benefits for women, whose workforce participation during the pandemic has dropped to 1987 levels, Goel says. A vital need is accessible, quality childcare. Without it, she says, women dropping out of the workforce “may end up being the new normal.”

Academia, like the rest of the economy, has faced major adjustments in the transition to work- and learn-from-home. “In today’s world, what is the value of the physical space?” asks Erika James ’91, dean of Penn’s Wharton School. “I personally believe that the value of physical space resides in the ability to create community and culture and sociability, which also drives performance,” she says. “Zoom and Microsoft Teams and all these platforms are great for providing a mechanism to converse and to exchange ideas, but sometimes those ideas happen most creatively when you can build on a thought someone else has, or when you have a thought and walk down the hallway to step into someone else’s office and say, ‘I’ve been thinking about something. I want to run this by you.’ That option doesn’t really exist with these online platforms.”

As a member of California’s newly formed Council of Economic Advisors, Lozano cannot reveal the group’s confidential discussions. But, he says, “it is safe to say all of those in the council are really concerned with equity, with social justice, with how to alter the very perverse consequences of the pandemic.” One area he singles out as an urgent need in the new normal economy is equitable access to broadband so that students and employees don’t have to go to McDonald’s to get online for school or work. Universal health care is another essential change, he believes, in the shadow of a pandemic in which laid-off workers not only lost jobs but their health insurance as well.

Both Lozano and Powell see merit in universal basic income—an idea championed in the 2020 presidential primaries by Andrew Yang. Lozana disputes the idea that “if you pay people, they won’t have incentive to work,” saying that argument “has been refuted over and over.”

The political will to bring about such major changes in access to technology and in the social safety net may well come from young adults in Powell’s age group or the current Pomona students Lozano teaches. One of them is Erika James’ son, currently a freshman at Pomona. “This moment in time has so fundamentally changed his trajectory in some regards, and what he cares about, and what’s important and what’s not important,” she observes. “I think that will last a lifetime. This is a defining moment for a generation.”

Powell notes that millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, have already faced four huge challenges in their relatively short working lives—the Great Recession, housing inflation, wage stagnation and now COVID-19. He tells of four friends, three of whom recently lost jobs—a restaurant manager, a flight attendant and a construction worker. “They feel they can’t catch a break,” he says. People he knows who have never taken an interest in politics were planning to vote this year. “In the next eight to 10 years, I think you’ll see an FDR-type New Deal,” he predicts.

Indeed, it is the generations coming into their own that give people like Lozano and James and Powell reason for optimism. “The people joining the labor force right now, I think they are more aware, not only of the environment but of those around them,” says Lozano. He sees in his students “a large sense of kinship and also a sense of political activism to make things better.”

“It’s so easy to frame what we’re currently experiencing as negative and bad, and it is for so many reasons, especially for people who have been physically affected by the pandemic,” says James. “But it is in these moments that innovation occurs, and the world makes shifts that, over time, are really positive.”

Change, James notes, “doesn’t feel good in the moment. But there will likely be a day, however many years from now, where we look back on this time and can’t believe how backward we were. ‘How could we have ever thought or acted or done those kinds of things?’

“Because of COVID,” James concludes, “we’ve had to innovate in new ways that are fundamentally going to change our future. We can’t predict what they are now. This is one of those defining moments in history, and that’s a good thing. There will be good that comes from this. We don’t know what it is yet.”

The Great Outdoors is In Again (Especially in Your Own Backyard)

The New (Ab)Normal in Tourism: The Great Outdoors is In Again (Especially in Your Own Backyard)

Water raftingLast spring the number of travelers passing through our nation’s airports, as tallied by the Transportation Security Administration, plummeted from an average of about 2.5 million per day to a low on April 14 of just 87,534—a reduction in airline traffic of more than 96 percent. Hotels suffered a similar debacle, with occupancies plummeting by three-quarters. And after coronavirus catastrophes on a couple of cruises, the whole cruise industry slipped into a kind of induced coma.

Since then, there has been a slight recovery in some sectors—airline traffic has rebounded somewhat, to about a third of last year’s norm—but as a whole the travel and tourism industry remains on life-support. What all of this means for the long-term future of leisure travel and tourism is still unclear. But at least in the short term, there are signs of a shift in the way Americans think about travel.

Taking It Outside

Alison Mathes ’05, CEO of AVA Rafting and Zipline, first saw those signs way back in May, when the rafting season opened up on Colorado’s rivers. “We were a little bit shocked actually at the volume of interest when we opened up in the spring,” she says. “We were expecting a tiny trickle of interest, a few people who are a little bit more adventurous, willing to try group activities, willing to try getting out, doing things in public again, but really, it’s apparently what everyone wants to do.”

According to the U.S. Travel Association, 60% of Americans now consider outdoor recreational activities relatively safe—something that can’t be said for most other kinds of outside-the-home entertainment in a time of pandemic. After a slow start, attendance at national parks around the country boomed all summer long as Americans sought to escape from their confinement into the relative safety of the great outdoors.

“I think people really are itching to get outside, both from having been cooped up for so long but also looking for something that they feel comfortable doing, and outdoor recreation seems to tick all those boxes,” Mathes says, noting that her outdoor outfitting company remained booked up all summer long.

The biggest challenge, she says, has been ensuring the safety of both customers and staff. “For all of our activities, we have tried to do as much outside as possible. So rather than having people come inside to check in, we’re doing outdoor check-ins at all locations, requiring masks on-site. Transportation—we’re doing half capacity with staggered seating so that people aren’t too close together, keeping all windows open, requiring masks on vehicles, loading back to front and then unloading front to back, so that people aren’t crossing each other.”

They also do a lot of screening. “We ask at the time of reservation if they’re feeling ill or have any symptoms, and then we also ask the day before that they review and make sure that they do not have any symptoms, they’re not feverish. And that if they are feeling any of those symptoms, they’ll call us in advance and cancel, and we’ll give them a full refund in that context. And that seems to have worked. We have not had people show up exhibiting symptoms that needed to be turned away.”

One change that Mathes witnessed throughout the summer was a surge in the number of people who were trying activities like rafting, hiking or zip lining for the first time. “It’s been nice to see how much people seem to be connecting with these outdoor activities,” she says. “And I think a lot of people will continue that after this. Even if, let’s say, we magically get a vaccine in the next six months, I think we’ll continue to see people looking to get outside and enjoy nature-based activities more than they have historically.”

A lot of those newbies, she says, are turning into enthusiasts and investing in the experience. “People are going out and buying a mountain bike for the first time,” she says. “They’re investing in fly-fishing gear. They’re buying a tent and sleeping bags. They’re really putting money behind these activities, and I think they’ll continue to use that equipment moving forward.”

Road-Trip Revival

Another change from previous years, Mathes says, is that her clientele has become overwhelmingly local, as vacationers look around for nearby opportunities they’ve overlooked in the past. The tourists who used to fly in from the coasts for an outdoor adventure and then fly out again have been replaced by car traffic, mostly from Colorado and neighboring states, though she’s seen a few license plates from as far away as Massachusetts. “What I’m seeing is people are really comfortable jumping in a car and driving to a destination to get outside,” she says.

As a result, the old-fashioned road-trip vacation seems to be making a comeback. That was the fallback choice of Chuck and Maggie Seaca of Anchorage, Alaska, whose summer plans for a big wedding and a honeymoon in the Galápagos Islands were overturned by the pandemic.

“We were supposed to get married in a big celebration with lots of friends who were going to come out to Alaska,” explains Chuck Seaca ’14 (known to his classmates as Chuck Herman). “And we had rented out a big campground, and it was going to be a big celebration where everybody camped and had fun. Sadly, that was unable to happen due to coronavirus.”

Instead, for their wedding, the couple decided to take a small party of local friends back to the site of their engagement—on top of a glacier in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park. “We hiked seven miles total,” Seaca recalls. “Maggie did the whole thing in her wedding dress.”

Next they had to make a decision about their honeymoon plans. “We kind of kept up that hope for a while,” he says, “and then realized that probably a cruise ship out to the Galápagos, which is essentially the main way to go out and see them—that it was not the ideal time to do that.”

So instead of flying and sailing, they decided to think local and do something neither of them had ever found time to do in their years in Alaska—drive north past the Arctic Circle. “We got pretty lucky with Denali National Park,” he remembers. “Normally you’re never allowed to drive in on your own. You have to take a shuttle or a big bus run by a tour company. But because there are so few tourists, they opened up a pretty limited permit system to let you drive in on your own.”

Self-described nature lovers, the couple tallied a wide range of animal sightings—including 11 grizzly bears, nine caribou, six moose and very few people—during a road trip that took them more than 200 miles north of the Arctic Circle and then, after a few days of camping and hiking, 700 miles back to Anchorage. “While the honeymoon wasn’t to the Galápagos like we’d hoped,” Seaca says, “we got to explore parts of our own state that we’d never seen and had a delightful time north of the Arctic Circle with the bears, moose and caribou.”

Lock, Stock and Barrel

On the flip side of the rediscovered road trip, Mathes says, she’s also seen another growing trend—people who are moving lock, stock and barrel to the places where they used to vacation.

“We’re seeing a lot more people move out to these vacation destinations in Colorado as well,” she says. “I think people, as they’re able to work remotely, are shifting their whole lifestyle in order to be closer to the activities that they want to do and closer to the places they would normally spend a lot of money to visit for a week once a year. So it’ll be really interesting to see how that shakes out, but that seems to be what people want to do, at least in the short term.”

Rewriting the Rules of Dating

The New (Ab)Normal in Dating: Rewriting the Rules of Dating

DatingDating has always been fraught with emotional pitfalls. Even before the pandemic hit, in an October 2019 survey of singles by the Pew Center for Research, two-thirds of all respondents said their dating lives were going either “not too well” or “not well at all.” Almost half (47% to be exact) said they believed dating was harder than it had been a decade before.

That was before quarantines and masks and social distancing added a whole new level of complication. Before everyone’s lives moved almost entirely online—including, for many, the trials, disappointments and potential joys of dating.

Taking It Online

Online dating services are nothing new, of course, but they’re clearly on the rise as isolation and curiosity continue to drive singles across the country to dating apps. Match Corp—which controls 45 dating brands and more than 60 percent of the dating app market, including such well-known apps as Tinder, Hinge, Match and OKCupid—reported a 15 percent bump in new subscribers during the second quarter of 2020 alone.

Among those trying dating apps for the first time last spring were Will Swanson ’06 and Marianna Heckendorn ’16.

Heckendorn had a couple of Sagehen friends who had used Hinge, and she enjoyed hearing their stories, but she’d never really been tempted to try it herself. Then the pandemic came along, and she decided to take the plunge. “I was unemployed and a bit bored,” she recalls, “and also, I was, like, ‘I want to meet some new people.’ And so, I wasn’t really looking for a relationship. Just chatting with people and meeting them. And also just, kind of, out of curiosity—like, ‘What is this dating app?’”

For Swanson, trying a dating app seemed like a natural extension of the rest of his increasingly online life. He chose OKCupid because it offered more information than most sites. “It’s not one of the swiping ones—like Tinder,” he explains. “Well, yeah, you can swipe with it, but it’s more fleshed out than the ones that have just, like, pictures and then a quick little blurb.”

The ability to flick through a series of photos as you assess them for attractiveness—a kind of speed-shopping known in the industry as “swiping”—is a common feature on most dating apps. But counterintuitively, the combination of dating apps and pandemic quarantine seems to have had an opposite effect on dating in general. In many cases, it seems to have slowed things down.

Slow Dating

A resident of Seattle, Heckendorn was visiting her parents in Massachusetts when the lockdown began. So when she decided to try her luck with Hinge, she focused on guys back home. That’s how she met Javier.

“Javier and I met just a couple of days in and pretty immediately dove into some really interesting conversation,” she explains, “We tested it for about a week and then had a phone call, and I think at some point, I explained that I was in Massachusetts and not Seattle. And he’s funny. He was like, ‘What the heck?’ And he wasn’t mad or anything, but he was surprised. And I didn’t even think of that being an issue because I was thinking, ‘Well, if we were in Seattle, we wouldn’t see each other anyway because of COVID.’”

Whatever the main reason—COVID or being a continent apart—they took it slow, not meeting in person until five weeks later, when Heckendorn flew home to Seattle. But even so, Heckendorn believes that their relationship actually deepened more quickly because of the pandemic.

“We’ve actually gotten really close a lot faster than I normally would have,” she says. “I think partly that’s because there isn’t a lot else to distract ourselves with, and also, there’s a level of just, like, the only thing we can really do is hang out and talk. It’s not like going to a concert or going out to eat or even hanging out at friends’ houses. A lot of our dating is conversation-based, which means we’re getting to know each other pretty well.”

Similarly, it was early May when Swanson first noticed Ruth Siegel’s profile on OKCupid and sent her a message, using the app’s chat feature. From back-and-forth chat messages, the relationship progressed first to phone calls and eventually to Zoom dates.

“He wanted to go straight to Zoom,” Siegel remembers, “and I was like, ‘I don’t know. That’s a little fast for me.’”

“‘I’m a conservative gal,’” Swanson interprets dryly. “‘I don’t go straight to Zoom on the second date.’”

They didn’t agree to meet in person until more than a month later. “By then, I knew all kinds of things about Ruth’s family,” Swanson says. “She knew about my family. We’d had a long time to get to know each other before there was even the possibility of hugging each other or touching each other.”

A Question of Trust

“I think it is quite a conflict that people who are single are in—young adults and older adults,” notes Professor Emerita of Psychological Science Suzanne Thompson, who has studied how people react to inconvenient health warnings. “And it’s all the rewards of dating and relationships—the social contact, the physical closeness, sex—and, on the other hand, you could be exposing yourself to a serious disease. So it’s really quite a quandary to be in, and certainly, based on research I’ve done over the years on denial, in those situations, it’s very tempting to assume that this is a safe situation.”

Neither Swanson nor Heckendorn, however, took the decision to meet in person lightly.

Heckendorn lives with four housemates, so she first sought their approval before bringing Javier into their shared circle. “I definitely had to check that with them, and they were like, you know, ‘We have to trust your judgment.’ They had a rule that everyone could have one plus-one. So it was basically me, the four housemates, and then everyone’s plus-one.”

Before finally meeting in person, Swanson and Siegel took some time to work out the ground rules. “One of the things we had to discuss was how we were going to manage physical contact,” Swanson says. “Like, were we going to be able to hug each other on our first date after having talked for a month? And were we going wear masks? How were we going to navigate that stuff?”

“And if we don’t wear masks,” Siegel adds, “then how are we acting outside of dating each other? Like, how are we interacting with the world so that we can feel confident that we’re not going to infect each other—that we can have trust in each other when we’re still getting to know each other?”

“And so I think we erred on the side of caution,” Swanson concludes, “but when it came to dating, we decided to just go ahead and incorporate each other into our social bubbles.”

Simplifying the Rules

Looking back on their own experiences, Swanson, Siegel and Heckendorn all agree that there were some real advantages to online dating during a pandemic. For one thing, the inability to get together in the flesh removed some of the awkwardness and complication of normal dates. “I find a lot of the dating rules to be a little confusing in the first place,” Swanson admits. “So one of the nice things about this is that there is kind of a reset. And we had to talk about everything and make everything explicit.”

Siegel adds: “It really takes away a lot of the pressures of dating in certain ways. And then there’s no expectation for physical intimacy before you really get to know the other person, which I also think is, like, a cool aspect of it.”

In fact, they say the challenge of getting to know each other without breathing the same air pushed them to be more creative. “The templates were basically erased,” Swanson says. “So you had to come up with your own template for what a date is. And that was interesting and kind of fun, in a way. And so I think it was, like, a good way to get to know each other outside of all the weird pressure that can sometimes be loaded onto dates and a way to see the other person instead of how this person fits into what you were expecting in a normal date.”

For Swanson and Siegel, that inspired a series of themed Zoom calls during which they would watch marble racing together or play show-and-tell with a framed artwork or a favorite item purchased abroad. For one date, they set themselves the task of making the same complicated cocktail to drink together at opposite ends of the Zoom line.

Heckendorn has now become an advocate for dating apps. “I think I actually have sold a lot more people on online dating,” she says. “I go to church with, like, a lot of folks, and I think there’s a feeling, always, that online dating is just about hookup. And it’s really not. There are a lot of people who are looking for a sincere relationship.”

But for now, at least, her own online dating experience is over. “Javier and I met within days of signing on to the app,” she says, “and then we both deleted the app two weeks later. Hinge’s tagline is ‘Designed to be deleted.’ And, at least in our case, it worked out really well.”

Affordably Green

HousingWhen Walker Wells thinks about the future of housing in a post-pandemic world, he sees green. “Green housing comes out of sustainability,” he says. It “looks at the relationship between the environment, social equity and the economy.”

Even before the pandemic, homelessness was one of the major problems facing the U.S., especially in megacities. The crisis of unaffordability is a problem born of success. As cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York have grown increasingly affluent, the cost of housing has skyrocketed, becoming out of reach for many of the workers who make urban life possible but whose wages have not kept up with housing inflation.

Efforts to address the housing shortage by building subsidized units often run into “not-in-my-backyard” resistance, even from those who recognize and want to solve the problem of the unhoused. Enter “greening”—a word Wells says is purposefully chosen to show ongoing action, and which can appeal to those with a desire to fight climate change. “People conflate older, deteriorated public housing … with all affordable housing,” he says. Yet “green often goes along with quality. A certified green rating gives people confidence that [affordable housing] will be well designed, maintained and attractive.”

Wells, a principal at Raimi+Associates who teaches a class on “Green Urbanism” for Pomona students, wants to dispel the notion that green building is too expensive for affordable housing. “Reluctance—maybe resistance—can come from housing advocates,” says Wells. “They sense it is a zero-sum game, trading green for units.” In fact, he believes that in a world facing climate change and the possibility of future economic disruptions, not building green may be what is too costly. The dollar difference is, in his words, “shockingly low.”

Building green only adds about 2 to 2 1⁄2 percent to the project budget. “Higher-quality, more-efficient equipment will save more money than it costs by a factor of three,” he notes.

One significant development in affordable housing could be greater use of prefabricated, modular housing units that are built in a mass-production factory, shipped to their final destination, and then “stacked up like Lego bricks,” says Wells. In theory, the units could be built more quickly in a controlled, resource-efficient environment. So far, though, Wells notes, modular construction has not yet been demonstrated to be more cost-effective than traditional building methods.

Each year, Wells asks his students to analyze their own ecological footprint—how many Earths does it take to sustain their lifestyle? “A number of them say, ‘When I’m out of school, I can do this green stuff,’” he remarks. “But sharing living spaces, being frugal, are all part of being green as well. An LEED [Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design] house on top of a mountain that you drive to in a Tesla may not be more green than sharing an apartment built in the ’70s and only turning on the A/C when desperate,” Wells says. “When they are in a position to choose on housing,” going green “will be a consideration.”

Wells sees positive trends continuing in housing, among them net-zero design so buildings offset their energy use, and “biophilia”—reflecting a desire to be connected to other living things. “There’s so much innovation going on,” he says.

Streaming Faith

religionLo, I will be with you always … even unto the end of a pandemic. Adapting the final words of Jesus for his church might be, well, appropriate—and not just for Christians. In the time of COVID-19, people of all faiths are improvising ways to worship without the danger of gathering.

The Right Reverend Megan Traquair ’85, bishop of the Episcopal Diocese of Northern California, is leading and watching the congregations under her care as they pray and pivot during the pandemic.

In keeping with state and county health directives, Episcopalians in California—like adherents of all religions—are not doing worship as usual. The gathering of the faithful is a core value—indeed, the point—of most ideas of church or temple. For Christians, when assembly isn’t possible, baptisms, weddings, funerals, communion and ordination services all face constraints—but community has not been not canceled. In a span of two weeks, 60 online churches were launched in Traquair’s diocese alone.

“People just rose to the occasion and started to stream worship from their living room or from the church as they were able,” says Traquair. “Some of our clergy were older, so they were under quarantine in California. And so they were streaming from their dining room or their living room, and they were leading worship.”

Troquair believes online church has actually been a boon for the diocese, not a bust. Attendance has increased. Perhaps, she posits, that’s because the fear factor diminishes when you don’t have to worry about parking or childcare. And of course, “once you sit in a pew and a sermon starts, you’re kind of stuck,” she adds. Online church “has been a wonderful way to get a flavor of what worship is like—lots more people are seeing it,” says Traquair.

While regulations remain, human connection can’t be contained. Traquair tells the story of the “Petunia Brigade” up near Eureka, California, where an older woman who is a church member there is isolated and lonely, with neither a computer nor a cellphone. Enter the brigade.

“One person brought a beautiful petunia and hung it outside of her dining room window. The rest of the congregation takes turns coming over to water the petunia baskets. And when they do, they put in a phone call to her. And they talk to each other on the phone looking at each other through the window under the petunia.”

This isn’t just a time to look through windows—it’s also a moment to take a look into the mirror. Reflecting on what the church will become in days and years to come post-coronavirus, Traquair says its role remains the same. The tools are what have changed. For example, in-person feeding ministries are now preparing sack lunches to go.

“In the Episcopal Church, we understand that we are called to reconcile all people to God through Jesus Christ. And there are many steps in that, but one of the primary steps is connection. And we live out that connection by loving our neighbor and by serving each other.”

With the world in the heat of panic, what about the church’s temperature? While people are pretty threadbare, Traquair says, one thing remains.

“I would say that a clear feeling I get from folks is one of gratitude. We appreciate what we have now and what we had and what we will have again.”

There are prayers in the Episcopal Church that are recited together, and there is no trouble keeping mostly in sync, Traquair says. But if the sanctuary offers unison, Zoom offers cacophony.

“And many of us have embraced that and said, ‘Bring on the chaos, that’s fine.’ But every once in a while, I’ll hear someone say, ‘We had an outdoor service, and we also had the Lord’s Prayer together, and we said it in unison.’ And then they get a blissful look over their face, because—who knew that that was something to be so grateful for? But we know now, and we are grateful.”

Mail-in Voting, Yes; Online Voting, No

Mail-in Voting

Election Day—at least as we knew it—is a thing of the past. The pandemic expanded and accelerated a U.S. shift toward vote-by-mail and early voting that turned Election Day into voting season instead.

And the tradition of Election Night as a television production that inevitably reaches its exciting conclusion with concession and victory speeches before people go to bed on the West Coast? Also kaput. Bush v. Gore took care of that in 2000 when the U.S. Supreme Court finally decided the election less than two weeks before Christmas. But delayed results may become increasingly common, particularly in down-ballot races, as voting by mail and slower validation and counting of ballots become more entrenched in American democracy.

“I do think that as a country, we might have to get used to the idea that we don’t know who wins the election on Election Day,” says Debra Cleaver ’99, the founder and CEO of VoteAmerica, the latest in the series of nonprofit voter registration and turnout organizations she has started, Vote.org among them.

Still, in a world where seemingly everything has gone online due to the pandemic, do not expect voting to follow.

“No to online voting. That would be a wonderful way for us to get 160 percent voter turnout,” Cleaver says.

“The Internet is horribly insecure. I imagine someone will point out that we bank online. Bank accounts are FDIC insured,” Cleaver says. “I think we are very far from online voting, whereas voting by mail, it’s so insanely secure. The most secure vote is a vote on a piece of paper. When we vote by mail, there is an actual piece of paper.”

Ever strategic, Cleaver considers the vulnerabilities by gaming it out. “It would be very hard for me personally to rig an election held by mail, whereas I mean, my tech team could absolutely hack the … out of an election held online. So yeah, let’s not vote online. All the votes will come from Russia. It’s a fair question. But I hope the answer to that is never.”

Cleaver has been engaged in the vote-by-mail movement since 2008, when she founded Long Distance Voter, a nonprofit dedicated to increasing turnout by making it easier to vote by mail.

Underlying all her efforts is the historically low voter registration and turnout in the U.S.—though Donald Trump became an extremely unlikely ally, driving the massive turnout in the November election. Before 2020, the percentage of the voting-eligible population to cast a ballot in a presidential election hadn’t reached 65% since 1908.

“Americans don’t need to be convinced to vote. They need to be able to vote,” Cleaver says. “It is objectively harder to cast a ballot in the United States than in any other nation with democratically elected leadership. Once you start there, it’s just a matter of identifying what’s keeping them from voting.”

VoteAmerica and other voter sites offer tools to help people register to vote, check their status, sign up for vote-by-mail or find their polling place. In VoteAmerica’s quest to remove roadblocks, it came up with another.

“Sixty-seven percent of Americans don’t have printers,” Cleaver says. “So if you need to print a mail-in form, you can’t. At the end of our workflows, for people with these printed mail-in forms, there’s now a line that says, ‘Click here if you need us to print and mail this form to you.’ And we do that.”

Voting by mail has other benefits, including cost savings.

“It’s actually expensive to have polling places. You have to pay for poll workers. You have to do all that training with them. You have to map citizens to polling stations—it’s just a tedious administrative process,” she says.

Despite fears related to the decisions that slowed the U.S. Postal Service, as well as worries about tampering, widespread voting by mail is likely here to stay.

“The first year that a state votes by mail, people are a little thrown off by the process. Change is hard for people. But then it becomes overwhelmingly preferred by citizens,” Cleaver says.

“Some lower-propensity people will say that they didn’t vote because they didn’t feel like they knew enough. But when we move to vote-by-mail, people have more time to research what’s on their ballot. And so not only does it increase turnout, it increases the percentage of people who vote the entire ballot, not just top of ticket, because people have time to research all the weird things on your ballot, like judges and ballot measures.

“People prefer vote-by-mail by an overwhelming margin once they have it. I think we’ll see more and more states move to vote-by-mail, which is great because it will increase participation.”

A Taste of Scarcity

Empty Grocery Shelves During Epedimic

Empty store shelves with food and supplies shortage during virus epidemic.

Half-stocked shelves, meatpacking plant shutdowns, broken supply chains. Food scarcity is not what Americans expected in the 21st century, but it became a reality early in the pandemic. It may be but a hint of global food issues ahead, not only because of more frequent pandemics but also because of climate change.

Jan Low ’78 holds a Ph.D. from Cornell in agricultural economics and was a co-laureate of the 2016 World Food Prize for her work on biofortified sweetpotatoes in sub-Saharan Africa. Through Low’s efforts with her team, the improved sweetpotato—rich in vitamin A—has become an established part of the diet in many parts of the region, helping save the eyesight of hundreds of thousands of children while strengthening the nutrition and food security of millions of people.

In Kenya, where Low leads the Sweetpotato for Profit and Health Initiative of the International Potato Center, COVID-19 was effectively contained during the first phase of the pandemic, in part because of significant government restrictions. (With a population of about 54 million, Kenya had about 1,100 COVID-19 deaths through early November, according to the World Health Organization.)

“But food prices now are going up, and of course the big concern is the quality of the diet,” Low says. “The households that are very poor, obviously, when these kinds of things start to happen, diet is what drops out first. Your animal-source foods, your fruits and vegetables. People eat fewer meals a day, and they rely on their staples.”

As the world emerges from the pandemic, Low says, “we should wake up and see the problems in the global food system.”

“We recognize that during these peak periods of time, the quality of diets really goes down, particularly for the poorest households. But when we build back, let’s try and make it a more equitable, healthier system than the one that’s been evolving.”

More difficult times lie ahead, Low says. In East Africa, climate change already is contributing to erratic rainfall and unseasonable temperatures that impact agricultural output. A plague of locusts even descended in some areas—floods in others, all in the same year.

Not only the developing world faces food challenges, however. “I think one of the very, very worrying challenges that the U.S. will face is we are the global grain producers,” Low says. “Out in the Midwest, those are the fields that feed the world,and they’re facing climate change for the first time. A lot of those fields in Iowa are not irrigated. They’ve had dependable regular rainfall. And some of that is changing now.”

Meat is likely to go up in cost as livestock feed grains become more expensive, though people might also move toward consuming less meat out of health and environmental concerns.

“Everybody says, you know, everything’s going to dramatically change … but I think behavioral change is very hard,” Low says. “So the question will be, unless there’s really an investment to change the inequities in our income systems, the inequalities are going to grow more.

“I fear for the United States because I look at the rates and divisions of inequality between rich and poor, and Kenya has the same problem. There’s a wealthy class. There is a small but growing middle class. And then there’s this huge number of poor people.

“At some point in time, people say enough is enough. So, you know, we’re really at one of those critical points.”

Compassion in a Disrupted World

ActivismThe sudden disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had the   potential to upend Shayok Chakraborty’s work as a community organizer with the Greater Boston Interfaith Organization. “The whole point of the job is to have one-to-one meetings with people, listen to people’s stories and eventually gather someplace in a public fashion,” he explains. How could that work continue amid public health restrictions?

Now, Chakraborty ’19 has come to see Zoom as a new part of the activist toolkit while the fundamentals of the work remain the same. In his view, there is a potential upside to the upheavals of the year 2020: “People are seeing things they maybe didn’t have to think about,” he says. “People don’t stick around in organizing or activism unless it is real to them in their own life. … There will hopefully be some longer-term base-building, awakening, consciousness.”

Three thousand miles from Boston, Darrell Jones III ’14 is also working to change the dynamics of power in communities. He had never seen himself as an activist but “tried to do what I do with an open heart and let my open heart lead the way,” he says. And although active in the business world, he “always had this other part of me that needed to act, to make compassion a verb in some way, shape or form.”

Jones is deputy director of Just Cities, based in Oakland, California, an organization co-founded by the late Congressman Ron Dellums. Jones says that “we like to proceed with something we call transformative justice, where we center the voices of those most proximate to pain.”

Both Chakraborty and Jones see pros and cons in the role technology is playing in activism. Technology makes possible breadth—”You can reach a bunch of folks very quickly,” says Jones. “It allows a lot of voices to be heard.” But “oftentimes we sacrifice depth,” he adds.  “Expertise, truth and authority can go by the wayside.”

Chakraborty says that he “used to be super-scornful of online activism”—

sometimes called “clicktivism.” “There’s a strain of activism that is about posting a super-funny tweet, a clever one-liner, and that’s it,” he says. “That’s deeply irritating. A lot of people are going through a lot of stuff. When you make it into saying something smart and get some likes and then       let’s move on, that’s not enough.” But, Chakraborty concludes, “I’ve grown to see there is a real use for it. Clicktivism helps a lot of people learn about these things and get into it.”

Ultimately, Jones sees a big part of the future of activism as “an invitation for each individual to go deeper within their own sense of self, in their own heart space, and try to infuse how they show up with a spirit of compassion and love.”

Chakraborty’s hope for activism in a post-pandemic world is that people won’t give up. “There’s always a pattern where a crisis will happen, and people get angry and grief-stricken or whatever they are feeling. They come together, do great stuff, and once it’s over, they leave, move on with their lives,” he says. “As much as people can stay, just stay doing some kind of work, whatever it means for them—that’s the only way we’ll make the long-term changes we are talking about.”

No Longer a Perk

ChildcareAs the country continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, childcare is among the toughest challenges for parents and employers alike.

Prior to the pandemic, about half of U.S. families reported having trouble finding care for a young child, according to the Center for American Progress. That number shot to nearly two-thirds this past spring as childcare centers closed and other in-home caretakers were told to stay home during lockdown orders.

“Now more than ever, children have come to the forefront,” says Shadiah Sigala ’06, as she holds her two-year-old on her lap during a PCM interview conducted via Zoom.

She speaks from personal experience as the mother of two young children, but also as the co-founder and CEO of Kinside, an app that assists employers offering childcare benefits. When an employer partners with Kinside, its employees can use the service to browse and find reliable childcare options for their families.

Sigala’s impetus for her newest entrepreneurial effort was inspired in part by her own experience with motherhood.

“I had a kid while co-founding my former company [Honeybook.com]. I now had a baby, and then my family leave period ended. How do I do this as a working mother? So I instituted the first family-related benefits, policies and organizational structures at the company, which was undergoing a big baby boom. As a company executive I asked myself, what is the experience like for my employees? And how do we show that we’re paying attention to this? So definitely, this was born out of personal need and our employees’ needs.”

Sigala says the pandemic has exposed the fact that the childcare system in America is both fragile and under-resourced. “To give context, about two-thirds of households in the U.S. are dual working households where both parents work,” she says. “On top of that, working mothers take on a larger load of childcare. Working mothers average 22 hours of childcare per week, on top of their full-time jobs.”

The pandemic has only made things worse.

“It really doesn’t matter if you are a frontline worker, an hourly worker, which is usually who suffers the most silently, or if you are middle management or an executive at a company. We’re all in this together,” she says. “And this is usually where we find an inflection point—where those in power and influence experience a pain point and they feel compelled to fix it.”

So what are employers doing to alleviate the challenges of childcare for their employees? “They realize that this is literally impacting their very bottom line,” says Sigala. “On top of productivity losses, it is estimated that about one in five working parents is saying that either they or their partner are considering leaving the workforce. Imagine that 20 to 30% of your employees are experiencing this? That is a significant portion of your employee base.”

“The most obvious incentive is that employers are offering subsidies for childcare for the first time, especially those employers who have employees that are essential and on the front lines. For example, we’re seeing many health organizations, who employ our nurses and doctors, folks who are absolutely essential. In order to keep them going, their employers are offering a childcare subsidy.”

Other employers are making their parental benefits more robust. That can mean anything from maternity or paternity leave to support for new parents who are returning to work, including childcare.

Sigala points out that working parents, and particularly mothers, are not only caring for children but sometimes caring for multiple members of their family, whether they live with them or not.

“Employers are really looking at this very holistically. We’re find­ing that suddenly they want it al,l or at least more, when it comes to family benefits. Whereas before, they were considering adding one new benefit; now they’re considering several, ranging from mental health to fertility to childcare. And whereas these benefits used to be considered perks, organizations are strategically moving their energy and efforts of family benefits into the ‘essential’ bucket.”

Embracing the Virtual Workplace

Virtual WorkplaceAs coronavirus cases spiked across the country in the fall, companies continued to recalibrate their work environments. Working from home may have seemed a temporary measure back in the spring, but it’s now becoming a more permanent solution for many.

Microsoft announced in early October that it will allow some of its employees to work from home until at least 2021, joining others such as Target and Ford Motor Company, as these companies struggle to figure out how to arrange offices in a way that keeps workers socially distanced and safe. Facebook took it one step further, allowing employees to work from home permanently.

While a move away from an in-office culture makes it harder to create connections and serendipitous moments of creativity, Laszlo Bock ’93, founder and CEO of Humu and former head of People Operations at Google, told the Wall Street Journal that right now, checking in on how an organization’s team members are doing is the most important thing an employer can do to keep them productive. No one should be surprised, he said, that the productivity gains that accompanied the move to remote work have now leveled off as fatigue has begun to set in.

“It was people being terrified of losing their jobs,” he told the Journal, “and that fear-driven productivity is not sustainable.”

Still, the experience with remote work has caused some companies to consider whether their employees need to be in the office at all, says Carol Fishman Cohen ’81, chair and co-founder of the career reentry firm iRelaunch. “Whereas face time in the office used to be a priority, the pandemic has forced a reckoning of whether productivity levels are equal or even higher if employees are working virtually.”

According to a recent study released by Upwork, it’s estimated that an astonishing 14 million to 23 million Americans intend to relocate to a different city or region as a result of telework.

The implications, Fishman Cohen said, are huge, no matter whether you’re an employer or an employee. “For employers, if roles are not location-specific, companies can search for talent anywhere in the country, and for some, the world. They can rethink their expenditures on real estate and business travel. For employees, taking location out of the equation means they can live anywhere they want and can move out of high-cost-of-living urban centers to smaller cities or more-remote locations if they choose.”

Disruption and Opportunity

The ability of workers to work from home, however, depends on a couple of things. Obviously but importantly, it depends on the survival of the organizations that employ them—and in times like these, that can be a stressful concern. It also depends on technologies that are being adopted in a rush and often stretched to their limits. For organizations and their employees alike, the name of the game during the time of COVID-19 has been coping with the resulting disruptions.

Organizations of all kinds have felt the shockwave from COVID-19 on their notion of business as usual, says Jose Low ’96, HR business partner at Port Logistics Group. The degree of impact, however, depends on the industry, the type of organization and its previous level of technology.

Adapting to the challenges has been especially tough for small businesses in which higher levels of in-person, face-to-face involvement and interaction are required to get the job done, according to Low. “Larger and medium-sized companies that have incorporated technology in the last few decades to allow a portion of their workforce to remotely connect in and to virtually collaborate and complete tasks and workflows seemingly have been able to flex and minimize disruptions,” he explained.

Organizations have also faced disruption due to their dependence on the global economy, he noted. “Despite individual functions and organizations being able to adapt more quickly through technical capabilities, we’ve seen and experienced that a disruption in some part of the supply chain network still significantly impacts other areas—affecting the production and delivery of products as well as performance of services.”

However, despite  all the roadblocks the pandemic has dropped into the world of work, it has also created a few opportunities.

Fishman Cohen works with employers to create “returnships” and other programs to bring back mid- to senior-level talent after career breaks for childcare, eldercare and other reasons. A ‘relauncher’ herself, Fishman Cohen’s return to work at investment firm Bain Capital after an 11-year career break was the subject of a Harvard Business School case study.

“Even before the pandemic, relaunchers typically feel pretty isolated in their experiences while trying to return to work after a multiyear career break,” says Fishman Cohen. “Now, with unemployment levels having spiked and still remaining high, ‘relaunchers’ are feeling more vulnerable, because they picture themselves standing in line behind millions of newly unemployed, which makes them feel their chances of getting hired are even slimmer.”

But the pandemic has also created an urgent demand for medical and technology professionals to return to work from retirement or a career break. “Any prior stereotypes and hesitations typically associated with hiring back older workers disappeared in our country’s hour of need, and these professionals reintegrated back into the workforce efficiently and effectively,” says Fishman Cohen.

For his part, Low believes that the pandemic is giving us a glimpse of what work may look like in the future. “It’ll take time, and different areas will experience different rates of change, including traditionally labor-intensive areas that require care and fine dexterity and manipulation.”

Workplace Newbies

Of all of the members of the workforce, perhaps the hardest hit are the young people just preparing to enter it. They’re the ones Hazel Raja, senior director of the Career Development Office at Pomona College, worries about on a daily basis.

“In terms of challenges, one thing that I don’t think people talk enough about is the mental and emotional impact of the pandemic on these young adults,” she says. “Our alums and students may be juggling a lot. Some may have different responsibilities off-campus compared to the responsibilities they had when classes were in session on campus; so their ability to set up informational interviews and/or to do career research may be difficult because of their living situation, household responsibilities, part-time jobs, etc. It’s no doubt a challenging time for many, but the transition from college is already a bumpy one without a pandemic.”

Raja points out, however, that there may also be some upsides to the COVID era that college students and new graduates should bear in mind. Even though current opportunities to connect in person with potential employers and recruiters are limited to virtual programming and events, for some this may become an advantage.

“Students who thrive in an online environment will feel a lot more comfortable engaging behind the screen. This environment removes some, but not all, of the awkwardness and nervousness that may be attached to new introductions,” she adds. “Moreover, the pandemic may open up space for students to really consider what they want to focus on as far as career prospects. Many new industries and career fields will be created through this pandemic, and our students’ liberal arts education can set them up beautifully for what’s on the horizon.”